THE world woke up on 13 June to the news that Israel had launched an attack on Iran. US President Donald Trump had hinted at the impending assault when he instructed American diplomats to prepare for evacuation. The boldness of the attack stunned many, especially since the US and Iran had been engaged in what appeared to be sincere negotiations. The Israeli offensive effectively derailed these talks. It is now evident that Israel is acting as a rogue state, carrying out the agenda of U.S. imperialism.
Israel justified its attack by claiming that Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon. This conclusion was allegedly drawn from remarks made by the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi. However, it is important to revisit some key facts regarding the IAEA’s role in Iran.
Iran ceased cooperation with the IAEA in February 2021, following then-President Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal negotiated under Barack Obama in 2015. As a result, the IAEA stated that it could no longer verify the status of Iran’s nuclear activities. On 9 June, Grossi said that “Iran’s failures to comply with reporting obligations had led to a significant reduction in the agency’s ability to verify whether Iran’s nuclear programme is entirely peaceful.” He further noted that “Iran had repeatedly either not answered, or not provided technically credible answers to, the agency’s questions regarding the presence of man-made uranium particles at three locations – Varamin, Marivan, and Turquzabad.” Grossi concluded by expressing “serious concern” over Iran’s rapid accumulation of highly enriched uranium. However, at no point did he suggest that Iran was building, or intended to build, a nuclear bomb.
Despite these clear facts, Israel, hiding behind the IAEA, distorted the agency’s statements to justify its attack on Iran. This is not a new tactic in the imperialist playbook. One only has to look back a few years to recall how then US President George W. Bush justified the invasion of Iraq by claiming that it possessed weapons of mass destruction. In the name of eliminating those weapons, Iraq was bombed and devastated. The assassination of Saddam Hussein and the descent of the country into chaos and sectarian violence were the consequences of that intervention. Israel is now following in the footsteps of its mentor — the United States. Naturally, then, Israel pays little heed to what IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi actually stated on 19 June: “We did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon.”
Israel’s real intention was never to “save the region or the world” from a nuclear threat. If that were the case, it would not have developed nuclear weapons itself, nor remained outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). What Israel cannot tolerate is any country that dares to stand up to its aggression — particularly those that support the cause of Palestine and oppose the occupation of Palestinian land. Israel seeks to be the unchallenged hegemon in the region, advancing and protecting US imperial interests.
Any country that can pose a technological, military, or economic challenge to Israel is immediately considered a threat. The US and Israel have acted in tandem to eliminate all such threats. They have succeeded in winning over major Arab powers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and even Egypt. Many of these countries signed the Abraham Accords, brokered by Donald Trump. These were part of the so-called “deal of the century” proposed by the US to resolve the Palestinian issue – not by recognising a Palestinian State, but by denying its very legitimacy. The Accords were designed to push these nations into aligning with Israel. Those that refused to follow the US-dictated line and posed strategic challenges were systematically targeted – Iraq, then Syria, and Libya. Now, Iran remains the last major country in the region that they seek to eliminate.
That Israel and the US disregard international law, the United Nations, and its conventions has once again been demonstrated by the recent attack on Iran. Israel claimed that the strike was a preemptive move to prevent a supposed Iranian nuclear attack. However, the UN Charter explicitly prohibits aggressive war against another nation, allowing military action only in self-defence. Iran did not attack Israel, nor is there evidence that it has developed a nuclear weapon or intended to use one against Israel. In no way can Israel justify its actions as self-defence. But then, when has Israel ever shown regard for the UN, its resolutions, or its Charter? It has consistently ignored numerous UN resolutions condemning its occupation and aggression in Palestine. It has shown no respect for resolutions affirming the Palestinian right of return or those calling for a two-state solution and recognition of the State of Palestine. To expect Israel to suddenly adhere to international law or respect the authority of the UN would be naive.
The burning question now is: what will happen to West Asia? And, more broadly, what are the implications for the rest of the world?
Israel claims to have achieved complete air superiority over the region and now asserts that it can strike Iran at will. Over the past seven days, we have witnessed intense aerial bombardments by both Israel and Iran. Israeli airstrikes have targeted infrastructure, civilian areas, nuclear and military facilities, senior generals, and nuclear scientists. Reports indicate that at least 657 people have been killed in Iran, including 263 civilians, and more than 2,000 have been wounded. According to estimates by the Israeli army, Iran has retaliated by launching 450 missiles and 1,000 drones at Israeli targets, resulting in at least 24 deaths and hundreds of injuries.
Israel assassinated several of Iran’s top generals and nuclear scientists, hoping to suppress any Iranian retaliation at the outset. However, this assumption proved wrong. Iran quickly regrouped after its initial losses and launched attacks on Israeli military and intelligence infrastructure — including, reportedly, hospitals. Israel has even threatened to assassinate Iran’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The United States has joined in this escalation, stating that it knows where Khamenei resides and that it would not be difficult to target him — but has “chosen not to.” The US has called on Iran to surrender. Such provocative statements can only inflame tensions rather than defuse them. Iran, as expected, responded defiantly, declaring it would never surrender and would continue to resist.
Experts are now debating which country has the military capacity and ammunition stockpiles to sustain a prolonged conflict. Reports suggest that Israel is already facing a shortage of missile interceptors and urgently requires resupply. Meanwhile, attention is turning to Iran’s inventory of ballistic missiles and how long it can continue to fire them. Regardless of the quantity of weapons held by either side, the stark reality is that both nations are inflicting severe damage on each other and placing the entire world on high alert. This escalating conflict poses a grave threat to global peace. Further compounding this volatile situation is the role being played by other global powers.
Donald Trump has stated that he will decide whether to launch an attack on Iran or not, within the next 15 days. In the meantime, the US has already mobilised a significant number of military assets around Iran. Israel has requested US assistance in deploying B-2 bombers equipped with bunker-busting munitions to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, many of which are buried deep beneath mountainous terrain. So far, the US has not agreed to this request. Nevertheless, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that the US is backing Israel’s attacks on Iran.
Iran has issued strong warnings to the US and European powers, cautioning them against joining Israel in any military aggression. Russia has also warned the US against attacking Iran. Both the Chinese and Russian presidents have held extensive discussions on the West Asian crisis and have specifically urged Israel to agree to a ceasefire. Turkey, too, has voiced serious concerns about the escalating conflict in the region.
The impact of this war is already being felt globally and is likely to worsen. Oil and natural gas prices have begun to surge. Some experts estimate that the price of a barrel of oil could rise to nearly $150 if the conflict persists – representing a nearly 150 per cent increase from the price at the onset of the war. Such a steep rise in energy costs could push the global economy into a severe crisis. Inflation would soar, placing an even greater burden on ordinary people. The working class is already grappling with a cost-of-living crisis and declining real wages. If the war continues, their conditions will deteriorate even further.
Global trade is likely to suffer a severe setback. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, or if ships transiting this crucial route are targeted or even threatened, global trade could be crippled. Such a disruption would add to the prevailing economic uncertainties and disproportionately affect developing and least developed countries. The resulting impact on global supply chains would also be felt by the working classes even in developed nations.
Despite these widely known consequences, imperialist forces and their allies appear determined to continue this aggression. They view the war as a means to reassert their hegemony over the region and by extension, the world. A defeat of Iran would be seen as a blow to the ongoing efforts to build a multipolar world order. Iran is now a member of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and it plays a key strategic role as an ally of both Russia and China. The United States believes that if Iran is neutralised, Russia and China will lose a vital partner – and that China, in particular, will be cut off from one of its major sources of fuel to power its manufacturing sector.
Conversely, if Israel fails, it will be seen as a major blow to the US and its hegemonic ambitions. The US would not only lose influence in West Asia, but the conflict would also reinforce the perception that it is a superpower in decline – politically, economically, and even militarily. Such an outcome would be a significant setback to US efforts to reassert global dominance and maintain a unipolar world order under its control.
What is unfolding therefore, is not merely a war between two countries. It is a far-reaching conflict with the potential to reshape global power structures and profoundly impact the future of humankind.
If the BJP-led government were wise, it would recognise that this is the moment to distance itself from the US-Israel axis and instead align with other developing nations in the effort to strengthen a multi-polar world order. Unfortunately, there is much reason to doubt the wisdom and intent of the current BJP-led government. Meanwhile, West Asia continues to burn and people suffer, waiting anxiously for an early resolution to the conflict and the return of peace.